|
Month |
Demand |
|
January |
37 |
|
February |
40 |
|
March |
41 |
|
April |
37 |
|
May |
45 |
|
June |
50 |
|
July |
43 |
|
August |
47 |
|
September |
56 |
|
October |
52 |
|
november |
55 |
|
december |
54 |
Consider ? = 0.5, ? = 0.3, Trend Adjustment in the month of February, T2 = 0. Determine the following ?
a) Using na?ve Method Forecast of the demand of April, May, June and July.
b) Simple Moving Average Forecast of the demand of April, May, June and July.
c) Weighted Moving Average Forecast of the demand of April, May, June and July. Weight of most recent months as follows ? 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0.1
d) Exponential Smoothing Forecast of the demand of April, May, June and July.
e) Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjustment Forecast of the demand of April, May, June and July.
f) MAD, MAPD, Error, Average Error, Tracking Signals of Simple Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjustment methods for the month of April, May, June, and July.
g) Best on the data of no (e) put your comments on the best forecasting method